Bulletin of the Faculty of Education, Wakayama University. Educational science 55
2005-02-28 発行

Bayes' theorem from a view point of the salted water problem

門田 良信
佐藤 英雄
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In order to make it possible to apply the theorem easily to a given problem, we will show that the prob- lems solved by applying Bayes' theorem can be solved in the same way as the salted water problem. We will modify several examples to the salted water problem, observing how we can get the problems effectively. Most of our examples are standard, whereas a few of them are amusing like puzzles and somewhat diffi- cult concerned with incomplete information. The modification to the salted water problem will give us much insight to the applications of Bayes' theorem and provide an intuitive description of el- ementary conditional probability, contributing to the education of it.
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